Product | | | |
Pathogen contamination level | | | |
V. parahaemolyticus prevalence | PR | = RiskBeta(1,91) | This study; Vose, 1997 |
Concentration (CFU/g) | C | = –LN (1 – PR) / 25 g | Sanaa et al., 2004 |
Initial contamination level (Log CFU/g) | IC | = Log(C) | |
Market | | | |
Market transportation | | | |
Transportation time (h) | Mark-timetrans | = RiskPert(4,5,7) | Personal communication1) |
Food temperature during transportation (°C) | Mark-Temptrans | = RiskWeibull(1.3219,2.8404,RiskShift(3.1093),RiskTruncate(1,40)) | Personal communication |
Death | | | |
Treatment time for the first decimal reduction | δ | = 1 / (0.0718 – 0.0097 × Mark-Temptrans + 0.0005 × Mark-Temptrans2) | This study |
Curve shape parameter | ρ | Fixed 0.6158 | This study |
V. parahaemolyticus survival model | C1 | = IC – (Mark-timetrans / δ)ρ | Mafart et al., 2002 |
Market storage | | | |
Storage time (h) | Mark-timest | = RiskUniform(0.17,0.5) | Personal communication |
Food temperature during storage (°C) | Mark-Tempst | = RiskUniform(0,10) | Personal communication |
Death | | | |
Treatment time for the first decimal reduction | δ | = 1 / (0.0718 – 0.0097 × Mark-Tempst + 0.0005 × Mark-Tempst2) | This study |
Curve shape parameter | ρ | Fixed 0.6158 | This study |
V. parahaemolyticus survival model | C2 | = C1 – (Mark-timest / δ)ρ | Mafart et al., 2002 |
Market display | | | |
Display time (h) | Mark-timedis | = RiskPert(0,720,4320) | Personal communication |
Display temperature in market (°C) | Mark-Tempdis | = RiskUniform(2.2281,20.272) | Personal communication |
Death | | | |
Treatment time for the first decimal reduction | δ | = 1 / (0.0718 – 0.0097 × Mark-Tempdis + 0.0005 × Mark-Tempdis2) | This study |
Curve shape parameter | ρ | Fixed 0.6158 | This study |
V. parahaemolyticus survival model | C3 | = C2 – (Mark-timedis / δ)ρ | Mafart et al., 2002 |
Home | | | |
Home storage | | | |
Storage time (h) | Home-timest | = RiskUniform(0,720) | Personal communication |
Food temperature during storage (°C) | Home-Tempst | = RiskLogLogistic(–29.283,33.227,26.666,RiskTruncate(–5,20)) | Lee et al., 2015 |
Death | | | |
Treatment time for the first decimal reduction | δ | = 1 / (0.0718 – 0.0097 × Home-Tempst + 0.0005 × Home-Tempst2) | This study |
Curve shape parameter | ρ | Fixed 0.6158 | This study |
V. parahaemolyticus survival model | C4 | = C3 – (Home-timest / δ)ρ | Mafart et al., 2002 |
Consumption | | | |
Daily consumption average amount (g) | Consump | = RiskPareto(0.60284,1.32,RiskTruncate(0,155)) | KCDC, 2018 |
Daily consumption frequency (%) | ConFre | Fixed 0.8 | KCDC, 2018 |
Daily non-consumption frequency (rate) | CF(0) | = 1 – 0.8 / 100 | KCDC, 2018 |
Daily consumption frequency (rate) | CF(1) | = 0.8 / 100 | KCDC, 2018 |
Distribution for consumption frequency | CF | = RiskDiscrete ({0,1},{CF(0),CF(1)}) | KCDC, 2018 |
Daily consumption average amount considered frequency | Amount | = IF(CF = 0,0,Consump) | KCDC, 2018 |
Dose-response | | | |
V. parahaemolyticus amount (CFU) | D | = 10C4 × Amount | |
Parameter | α | Fixed 0.17 | FAO & WHO, 2011;Iwahori et al., 2010 |
Parameter | β | 1.18 × 105 | FAO & WHO, 2011;Iwahori et al., 2010 |
Risk | | | |
Probability of illness/person/day | Risk | =1 – (1 + D / β)-α | FAO & WHO, 2011;Iwahori et al., 2010 |