Table 5. Excel spreadsheet for calculating the risk of norovirus in oyster with @RISK

Input model Unit Variable Formula Reference
Product
 Norovirus prevalence PR = RiskBeta(2, 156) This research; Vose (1997)
 Norovirus concentration GC/g C = –LN(1 – PR) / 2 g Sanna et al. (2004)
 Initial contamination level PFU/g IC = 1 / 1,000 × C Jensen et al. (2018)
Log PFU/g LogIC = Log(IC)
Market display
 Display time h Timemark-dis = RiskUniform(0, 24) Personal communication
 Food temperature during display °C Tempmark-dis = RiskUniform(2, 4) Personal communication
 Death
h0 = Fixed 0.001 This research
Log PFU/g Y0 = average(Y0i) Fixed 4.1 This research
Log PFU/g Yend = average(Yendi) Fixed 3.3 This research
LN(q) = LN(1 / (EXP(h0) – 1)) This research
 Death rate Log PFU/g/h DRmark-dis = –0.0008 – 0.0003 × Tempmark-dis This research
 Norovirus death Log PFU/g C1 = LogIC + 1 / (1 + EXP(–LN(q))) × (1 – (10−lY0-Yendl / LN(10))) × DRmark-dis × Timemark-dis This research
Transportation (vehicle)
 Transportation time h Timeveh = RiskUniform(0.325, 1.643) Jung (2011)
 Food temperature during transportation °C Tempveh = RiskPert(10, 18, 25) Jung (2011)
 Death
h0 = Fixed 0.001 = Fixed 0.001
Log PFU/g Y0 = average(Y0i) Fixed 4.1 This research
Log PFU/g Yend = average(Yendi) Fixed 3.3 This research
LN(q) = LN(1 / (EXP(h0) – 1)) This research
 Death rate Log PFU/g/h DRveh = –0.0008 – 0.0003 × Tempveh This research
 Norovirus death Log PFU/g C2 = C1 + 1 / (1 + EXP(–LN(q))) × (1 – (10−lY0–Yendl/ LN(10))) × DRveh × Timeveh This research
Home storage
 Storage time h Timehome = RiskUniform(0, 96) Jeong et al. (2015)
 Food temperature during storage °C Temphome = RiskLogLogistic(–29.283, 33.227, 26.666, RiskTruncate(–5, 20)) Lee et al. (2015)
 Death
h0 = Fixed 0.001 This research
Log PFU/g Y0 = average(Y0i) Fixed 4.1 This research
Log PFU/g Yend = average(Yendi) Fixed 3.3 This research
LN(q) = LN(1 / (EXP(h0) – 1)) This research
 Death rate Log PFU/g/h DRhome = –0.0008 – 0.0003 × Temphome This research
 Norovirus death Log PFU/g C3 = C2 + 1 / (1 + EXP(–LN(q))) × (1 – (10−lY0–Yendl/ LN(10))) × DRhome × Timehome This research
PFU/g C3PFU/g = 10C3 This research
Consumption
 Daily consumption average amount g Consump = RiskPert(1.8200, 1.8200, 335.30, RiskTruncate(0, 236.8)) KDCA (2020)
 Daily consumption ratio % ConFre = Fixed 0.98 KDCA (2020)
CF(0) = 1 – 0.98 / 100 KDCA (2020)
CF(1) = 0.98 / 100 KDCA (2020)
CF = RiskDiscrete({0, 1}, {CF(0), CF(1)}) KDCA (2020)
g Amount = IF(CF = 0, 0, Consump) KDCA (2020)
Dose-response
 Norovirus amount PFU/g CV(dose) = C3PFU/g× Amount
 Parameter η = Fixed 2.55 × 10−3 Teunis et al. (2008)
r = Fixed 0.086 Teunis et al. (2008)
Risk
 Probability of illness/person/day Risk = 1 – (1 + ηCV)−r Teunis et al. (2008)
IC, initial contamination level.