DISTRIBUTION |
Product |
Pathogens contamination level |
V. vulnificus prevalence | | PR | = RiskBeta (1,181) | This research; Vose (1996) |
V. cholerae prevalence | | PR | = RiskBeta (1,181) | |
Initial contamination level | CFU/g | C | = −ln (1 − PR) / 25 | Sanaa et al. (2004) |
| Log CFU/g | IC | = Log(C) | |
MARKET |
Market display |
Display time | h | Timemark-dis | = RiskPert (0,4,72) | This research; Personal communication1) |
Display temperature | °C | Tempmark-dis | = RiskExtValueMin (15.1959, 2.4783, RiskTruncate (0,18.8)) | This research; Personal communication |
Growth/death |
| Log CFU/g | h0 | = Average (µmax × LPD), Fixed 0.02767 | This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994) |
| Log CFU/g | Y0 | = Average (Y0i), Fixed 4.3 | This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994) |
| Log CFU/g | Yend | = Average (Yendi), Fixed 4.6 | This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994) |
| | ln(q) | = ln (1 / (EXP(h0) − 1)) | This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994) |
µmax | Log CFU/g/h | GRmark-dis | = −0.0875 + 0.007 × Tempmark-dis | This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994) |
Pathogenic Vibrio growth/death model | Log CFU/g | C1 | = IC + 1 / (1 + EXP(−ln(q))) × (1 − 10–|Y0–Yend| / ln(10)) × GRmark-dis × Timemark-dis | This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994) |
CONSUMPTION |
Daily consumption frequency | % | ConFre | Fixed 0.47 | KCDC (2019) |
CF(0) | = 1 − 0.47/100 | KCDC (2019) |
CF(1) | = 0.47/100 | KCDC (2019) |
CF | = RiskDiscrete ({0,1}, {CF(0), CF(1)}) | KCDC (2019) |
Daily consumption amount | g | Consump | = RiskExpon (55.585, RiskShift (3.0651), RiskTruncate (4,190)) | KCDC (2019) |
Final consumption amount | g | Amount | = IF(CF = 0, 0, Consump) | |
DOSE-RESPONSE |
V. vulnificus amount | CFU | D | =10C1 × Amount | |
α | Fixed 9.3 × 10−6 | WHO & FAO (2005a) |
β | Fixed 1.1 × 105 | WHO & FAO (2005a) |
V. cholerae amount | CFU | D | =10C1 × Amount | |
α | Fixed 1.31 × 10−1 | Cash et al. (1974); WHO & FAO (2005b) |
β | Fixed 1.49 × 107 | Cash et al. (1974); WHO & FAO (2005b) |
RISK |
Probability of illness/person/day | | Risk | = 1 − (1 + D/β)−α | Cash et al. (1974); WHO & FAO (2005a, 2005b) |