Table 3. Excel spreadsheet for calculating the risk of Vibrio spp. in raw whip-arm octopus with @RISK

Input model Unit Variable Formula Reference
DISTRIBUTION
 Product
  Pathogens contamination level
  V. vulnificus prevalence PR = RiskBeta (1,181) This research; Vose (1996)
  V. cholerae prevalence PR = RiskBeta (1,181)
  Initial contamination level CFU/g C = −ln (1 − PR) / 25 Sanaa et al. (2004)
Log CFU/g IC = Log(C)
MARKET
 Market display
  Display time h Timemark-dis = RiskPert (0,4,72) This research; Personal communication1)
  Display temperature °C Tempmark-dis = RiskExtValueMin (15.1959, 2.4783, RiskTruncate (0,18.8)) This research; Personal communication
 Growth/death
Log CFU/g h0 = Average (µmax × LPD), Fixed 0.02767 This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994)
Log CFU/g Y0 = Average (Y0i), Fixed 4.3 This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994)
Log CFU/g Yend = Average (Yendi), Fixed 4.6 This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994)
ln(q) = ln (1 / (EXP(h0) − 1)) This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994)
  µmax Log CFU/g/h GRmark-dis = −0.0875 + 0.007 × Tempmark-dis This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994)
  Pathogenic Vibrio growth/death model Log CFU/g C1 = IC + 1 / (1 + EXP(−ln(q))) × (1 − 10–|Y0–Yend| / ln(10)) × GRmark-dis × Timemark-dis This research; Baranyi & Roberts (1994)
CONSUMPTION
 Daily consumption frequency % ConFre Fixed 0.47 KCDC (2019)
CF(0) = 1 − 0.47/100 KCDC (2019)
CF(1) = 0.47/100 KCDC (2019)
CF = RiskDiscrete ({0,1}, {CF(0), CF(1)}) KCDC (2019)
 Daily consumption amount g Consump = RiskExpon (55.585, RiskShift (3.0651), RiskTruncate (4,190)) KCDC (2019)
 Final consumption amount g Amount = IF(CF = 0, 0, Consump)
DOSE-RESPONSE
V. vulnificus amount CFU D =10C1 × Amount
α Fixed 9.3 × 10−6 WHO & FAO (2005a)
β Fixed 1.1 × 105 WHO & FAO (2005a)
V. cholerae amount CFU D =10C1 × Amount
α Fixed 1.31 × 10−1 Cash et al. (1974); WHO & FAO (2005b)
β Fixed 1.49 × 107 Cash et al. (1974); WHO & FAO (2005b)
RISK
 Probability of illness/person/day Risk = 1 − (1 + D/β)−α Cash et al. (1974); WHO & FAO (2005a, 2005b)
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